What to Expect:
Welcome, all to the UFC rundown! The goal of this article is to identify the top DFS and betting options for UFC Fight Night: Calvillo vs. Eye. We will be going through fight-by-fight with predictions to help you identify the best fantasy and betting opportunities on the board. As you may have seen in last week’s Fight Night, the UFC Apex has a smaller octagon than we would typically say in these events. 25 ft compared to the standard 30 feet. If you watched a lot of those fights, you would realize that there are a lot more chances to win by finish with the smaller octagon. This should be a trend that continues this week.
Anthony Ivy vs. Christian Aguilera
Both fighters will be making their UFC debuts in this fight. Ivy will have both the reach and height advantage, which should play into his striking over Aguilera. Aguilera’s only path to victory in this fight would be getting this one on the ground and going for the submission, which isn’t something that he was able to show too much of in his MMA career leading into the UFC. He had one win in the KOTC promotion where he won by both submission and punches (which I assume he had some ground game there). I don’t see this going to the ground, and think Ivy should have a fun time here.
Ivy by Finish (TKO)
Tyson Nam vs. Zarrukh Adashev
This one should be much closer than our first fight. Nam’s path to winning this fight would be to survive the distance and getting there with the cardio. Adashev does not have a ton of professional MMA experience. In the four appearances that he does have, three have ended in finishes. He does have a decision win in Bellator, but I do not see enough to be convinced that Adashev can win a decision. However, Adashev has a path to winning by a finish. Nam is a low output striker with a questionable defense%. He was pounded on in his first two UFC appearances, and one hard hit from Adashev can end this one. The smaller cage should help him with this.
Adashev by Finish (TKO)
Julia Avila vs. Gina Mazany
While she did win her first fight in the UFC, Avila didn’t show us a ton in terms of her fantasy upside. Though what she lacks in volume, she makes up for in power. These powerful strikes of hers are how’s she has succeeded in MMA. Mazany is a better opponent for Avila to show the UFC world what she’s capable. Mazany doesn’t offer any type of a threat here, losing by KO and submission once each in her career. Mazany may have a chance here if she can take this to the ground, but I just don’t see that happening.
Avila by Finish (TKO)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Gustavo Lopez
After Ray Borg dropped out of this fight, Lopez fills in for his UFC debut. I’m not sure if there is a path for Lopez to win. Dvalishvili goes for so many takedowns that I’m not sure if Lopez will be able to take advantage of any of his striking ability. Dvalishvili is in close to 100% of Draftkings lineups for me because he doesn’t even have to finish to get into the winning lineup. In his last fight against Casey Kenney, Merab was in the winning lineup with 63 SS, and 12 (12!) takedowns with a decision win. His odds of getting to 100+ Draftkings points are heavy here.
Dvalishvili by Decision
Mariya Agapova vs. Hannah Cifers
Money talks, because Cifers is fighting her third fight in 2020 where she’s likely to lose by finish. Cifers was knocked out by Angela Hill back in January, and was submitted by Mackenzie Dern a few weeks ago. She cannot fight people with finishing upside. Agapova has shown this in her MMA career thus far. At 23, she has six professional finishes. Cifers has decent enough takedown defense where it may not get to the ground. But Agapova will just wear her down with strikes then. The best-case scenario for Cifers is for this to get to a second round.
Agapova by Finish (TKO)
Jordan Espinosa vs. Mark De La Rosa
The posted odds on this fight (-175/+150) seem off to me. I see no path for De La Rosa to win here other than the narrative of him being out of the UFC with a loss (not guaranteed by likely to me). De La Rosa does have a wrestling game that he has used to win once by submission two years ago. However, Espinosa has such great takedown defense (80%) that I don’t think Mark’s wrestling game matters. Espinosa is the much better striker, landing much better and absorbing far fewer blows. I’m not sure this is a great fantasy fight though, neither has finishing upside nor high enough volume to get them into the winning lineup.
Espinosa by Decision
Andre Fili vs. Charles Jourdain
If you’re a believer in pattern math, then Fili is a shoo-in to win this fight. You’ll see what I mean if you take a look at his stats page. Realistically though, he does have a better chance of winning this fight. Unlike Jourdain, Fili has a ground game worth discussing. I guess that Fili will look to get this to the ground early and often. These two are even in my eyes when it comes to their striking. Jourdain’s inability to defend takedowns will allow Fili to do just that.
Fili by Decision
Charles Rosa vs. Kevin Aguilar
This fight should stay on the feet throughout. There’s a ground game to Rosa, but Aguilar has an 86% takedown defense, which should negate any takedown ability that Rosa has. Both fighters looked horrible in their last fights. Rosa landed only 5 SS against Bryce Mitchell in three rounds. Aguilar was knocked out in February by Zubaira Tukhugov. But I want to give Aguilar the edge here if only because his striking his slightly better than Rosa’s.
Aguilar by Decision
Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori
This should be an exciting fight because of the trash-talking around it. This fight was supposed to happen a few weeks ago before Roberson had to pull out. Vettori got pissed off, and now we’re here. Both are very good at putting out substantial striking volume and avoiding those big shots. Roberson is more efficient and absorbs fewer. Though Vettori is the one who throws more powerful shots. If anyone is winning by finish, though, it’s Roberson. Who has a strong submission game. I’m just not sure he can use it here. Vettori hasn’t been taken down since 2016. Vettori seems more likely to win, but Roberson seems to offer betting value at +191 on Pinnacle.
Vettori by Decision
Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Our main event of the night was thrown a twist at weigh-ins today where Eye missed weight by .25 lbs. Not only that, but she could hardly get off of the scale without stumbling around. I’m usually one to look at the numbers and see where it takes me, but you just have to look at Eye and know she couldn’t handle the weight cut. Looking into the numbers, though, While potentially even in striking, Calvillo has a far superior ground game that should be the reason she ends up winning the fight. Three of her five UFC wins are by submission, and I think submission win #4 could happen in this fight.
Calvillo by Finish (Submission)