What to Expect:
Welcome, all to the UFC rundown! The goal of this article is to identify the top DFS and betting options for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov. We will be going through fight-by-fight with predictions to help you identify the best fantasy and betting opportunities on the board. As you may have seen in last week’s Fight Night, the UFC Apex has a smaller octagon than we would typically say in these events. 25 ft compared to the standard 30 feet. If you watched a lot of those fights, you would realize that there are a lot more chances to win by finish with the smaller octagon. This should be a trend that continues this week.
Max Rohskopf vs. Austin Hubbard
Making his UFC debut, Max Rohskopf looks primed to win his first fight. In five professional MMA fights, he has won all of them by submission, four of them in the first round. When we look at Austin Hubbard, we see that he’s been very vulnerable to being taken down. Especially in his last match against Mark Madsen. In his previous three fights, Hubbard has allowed himself to be advanced upon an average of 2 times per fight. Hubbard did not have the Striking volume or power to tell me that he has a chance of winning this fight. And with the smaller cage, this could potentially end early in the first round.
Rohskopf by Finish (Submission)
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Lauren Murphy
This fight should primarily stay on the feet, considering that both fighters have solid takedown defense percentages. Which should negate any of the takedown skills that either of these fighters has. Modafferi struggles in situations where she is forced to compete in a high volume striking match. Only showing once in 2017 that she could even throw that many strikes. In her last three fights, Lauren Murphy has been averaging 11.04 strike attempts per minute. Which is not the type of volume that I expect Modafferi to be able to handle. Not that I think that this fight can end in a finish, but I do believe that Murphy has the advantage in this fight, assuming that the grappling is even, and she has a striking advantage.
Murphy by Decision
Frank Camacho vs. Justin Jaynes
Justin Jaynes is another fighter that is signed fresh off the street due to Mark Frevola having a cornerman test positive for the virus. Jaynes has had success in lower MMA promotions leading to his UFC debut, but so does everyone else that gets to that point. I don’t see anything impressive in him that makes me think that he has a chance against Frank Camacho. In his last three fights, Frank Camacho has been Landing 7.27 significant strikes per minute, which is an insane number. Jaynes should not have the ability to deal with this type of volume in his debut.
Camacho by Finish (TKO)
Courtney Casey vs. Gillian Robertson
As of this writing, the Vegas odds would suggest that this should be a close fight. Though I believe otherwise. Throughout her UFC career, Courtney Casey has had issues against strong grappling opponents. Being taken down quite a bit. A lot of this has to do with the fact that she has a 39% takedown defense percentage. Which doesn’t bode well when you’re trying to win decisions. Gillian Robertson has everything in her arsenal to take advantage of, averaging 7.26 takedown attempts in her last three fights and landing 2.27 on average. There should be plenty of opportunities for her to rack up those takedowns, and thus, the fantasy points. I expect there to be at least one submission attempt available for Robertson to take when she wins the fight.
Robertson by Finish (Submission)
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Oskar Piechota
It’s been a while since either has won a UFC fight. Barriault has never won in the UFC in three attempts, and Piechota hasn’t won since 2018. Barriault has at least shown though that he can keep fights competitive, having lost his matches by decisions. He has more of a willingness to go for takedowns then Piechota. He also looks to be the better striker here. With more volume and power when he attempts. This can be a back and forth fight, but Barriault seems to have the edge for me.
Barriault by Finish (TKO)
Brianna Van Buren vs. Tecia Torres
This fight should go the distance, but I don’t expect it to be competitive along the way. Brianna Van Buren, one her lone UFC appearance in an apparent decision win. Tessa Torres, I cannot say the same, as she has lost her last four fights by decisions. Granted, all of these losses were against some of the top talents in the strawweight division, but she didn’t look very good in these losses. Getting demolished in the striking battle along the way each time. In her UFC debut, Van Buren landed 4.8 significant strikes per minute while attempting 12.47. Torres has been absorbing 4.64 strikes per minute in her last three fights, giving me very little confidence that she’ll be competitive.
Van Buren by Decision
Clay Guida vs. Bobby Green
This fight should primarily play out on the feet because while both Fighters are willing to attempt takedowns, both have very strong takedown defense percentages. 100% Guida and 50% for Green respectively in their last three fights. If we’re going to assume that this will be a striking match, Bobby Green has the advantage. He’s landed 5.6 significant strikes per minute and a tempting 10.29. Whereas Guida is attempting 9.97, but only landing 38% of his significant strikes. I think that this fight is a bit closer than the Vegas line suggests, so there could be some bedding value on Clay Guida.
Green by Decision
Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Both of these fighters are incredibly similar in that they both want to submit their opponents as fast as possible. Of course, there’s quite an age gap between the two (11 years). Neither has a ton of striking output attempting and Landing relatively few significant strikes on a per-minute basis. I do have to get the grappling Edge to Roosevelt Roberts however, because he has been able to average 4.45 advances per grappling attempt in his last three fights, which is much higher than Jim Miller. Showing that Roberts should be better in grappling situations. Honestly, though, there is a path for both fighters to win by submission. But because of the youth and better recent performance, I would have to give the edge to Roosevelt Roberts.
Roberts by Finish (Submission)
Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good
Neither Bilal Muhammad nor Lyman Good seems to be decent fantasy plays. For Lyman Good to be in the winning lineup, he would need to win by finish, and Muhammad has not been finished since 2016. And when Muhammad wins, he usually does so in a fashion that does not yield a ton of fantasy points. As far as predicting the outcome of this fight is concerned, despite should stay on the feet, and because of this, Muhammad has a clear advantage. Landing strikes with better efficiency and volume, as well as defending himself much better than Lyman Good. There is betting value on Good, but I think Muhammad wins this fight more often than he loses.
Muhammad by Decision
Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau
Between Pennington and Reneau, it’s challenging to figure out who would be the better striker. For me, this fight will be determined through the grappling game in which Pennington has a considerable advantage. She’s attempting 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes while Reneau only has a 33% takedown defense percentage over her last three fights. Reneau’s only path to victory is to keep this fight on the feet, knowing that she has a little bit more strike attempt volume then Pennington. Though I don’t see this is very likely, it is very much possible.
Pennington by Decision
Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos
Realistically, this fight could end either way via knockout. Both have extreme power in their striking in which they’re able to knock out their opponents quickly. This one’s going to come down to who’s able to land more strikes and do so in a more dominant fashion. With that being said, Shane Burgos seems to have the advantage. In his last three fights, he’s landed 7.98 significant strikes per minute, while attempting 13.17. Because both fighters have takedown defense percentages above 95%, it seems unlikely that we’ll see any type of grappling in this fight. Which should make for an exciting fight throughout.
Burgos by Decision
Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov
Technically speaking, you can say that there is a path for either fighter to win. In Volkov’s case, the only way I see him winning this fight is by getting a quick, powerful strike early and knocking out Curtis Blaydes. It’s within the realm of possibility, but extremely unlikely to occur given how well Blaydes can avoid absorbing blows. More likely than not, Curtis Blaydes will be able to win this fight through the sheer volume of takedown attempts that he should have here. In his last three fights, Blaydes is averaging 11.98 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. If Curtis Blaydes can fatigue Volkov early, he should have no problem knocking him out by the time the second or third round rolls around. I have a hard time thinking this fight will get to the 4th round; however, it ends.
Blaydes by Finish (TKO)