- What to Expect:
Welcome, all to the UFC rundown! The goal of this article is to identify the top DFS and betting options for UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz. We will be going through fight-by-fight with predictions to help you identify the best fantasy and betting options on the board.
Raulian Paiva vs. Mark De La Rosa
I can see how some people might find this fight competitive, as both fighters tend to be the type to throw a ton of strikes, and also allow a ton of strikes to be landed upon them. However, Raulian Paiva has quite a few more significant strikes then Mark de La Rosa does. This is why I wouldn’t be surprised if Paiva were able to win this fight be a knockout. Paiva’s win by finish prop is pretty nice right now in terms of value.
Paiva by Finish (TKO)
Macy Chiasson vs. Shanna Young
This will be Shanna Young’s UFC debut, and it doesn’t look very pretty for her. Her opponent, Macy Chiasson, will certainly be able to outstrike her, and it’s not as if Young has any ground game to work with, as she has virtually no grappling statistics throughout her professional fighting career. I would be shocked if this fight didn’t end early.
Chiasson by Finish (TKO)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Casey Kenney
When it comes to this fight, I have a much different view than Vegas. Dvalishvili is a decent enough favorite coming in, but I believe it is Casey Kenney that will end up victorious. Both of these fighters do have a wrestling component to their fighting style, it’s Kenney who seems to be the more efficient wrestler, with a 50% takedown accuracy as opposed to Dvalishvili with 43% takedown accuracy. Also, Kenney is the much better striker, landing 3.48 strikes per minute, and landing them with a 41% accuracy rate. My guess is that Kenny takes down Dvalishvili early, and end up winning this fight by knockout or submission.
Kenney Win By Finish (TKO)
Devin Clark vs. Dequan Townsend
This is another fight to start the card where there is a clear winner. Devin Clark should have no issues whatsoever beating Dequan Townsend. Clark is by far the superior striker and superior wrestler. Averaging 3.21 significant strikes per minute, while Townsend is absorbing 2.65 strikes per minute. Townsend also has no ground game to speak of, while Clark averages three takedowns per fight, with 39% accuracy. This fight isn’t going to be close and the fact that Clark’s win by finish prop is currently at +250 is an absolute joke. Bet the hell out of that line for sure.
Clark by Finish (TKO)
Jim Miller vs. Scott Holtzman
This is the first fight of the night that should remain relatively close, or at least go the distance. The thing is, Scott Holtzman has edges, even if they’re only slight, in both striking and wrestling departments. He can outstrike Miller 4.36 to 2.78. And even though he does tend to absorb more strikes per 15 minutes, he makes up for it with a solid wrestling pedigree. Averaging 2.37 takedowns, with 58% accuracy. My guess is that this fight ends in a decision in Holtzman’s favor. Scott Holtzman win by finish prop, and of course, his money line prop are excellent values at the moment.
Holtzman by Decision
John Dodson vs. Nathaniel Wood
Here’s another fight that should be entertaining, but not close at all as I expect Nathaniel Wood to win by finish here. I believe he could do so either through his striking or through his submission game. Over his UFC career, he has won all three of his fights by submission. The only issue is that Dodson is probably the best takedown defender that Wood has faced in his career. However, Dodson also absorbs a lot of strikes, which could end up being his detriment in this fight. Wood’s win by finish prop is ripe for the picking at the moment.
Wood by Finish (TKO)
Tim Means vs. Daniel Rodriguez
If you’re looking for that big underdog upset on this card, then Daniel Rodriguez is the most likely way of getting there. In his UFC debut, he’s going up against the fighter in Tim Means that, while being able to dish out quite a few strikes per 15 minutes, also absorbs quite a few. Allowing 3.34 significant strikes per 15 minutes. Something else that Rodriguez has been able to succeed in leading into his UFC debut is his takedowns. Where he’s averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes. Being such a powerful striker, and having some semblance of a ground game can allow him to when this fight, and even win it. Though I would say that a win by decision is more likely.
Rodriguez by Decision
Lando Vannata vs. Yancy Medeiros
This should be a close fight, as it is possible for either fighter to win inside the distance given their skill sets. So I think one bet you can safely make is for this fight to finish inside the distance. But if you are looking for a specific fighter to win, I would say that Lando Vannatta has a higher likelihood of winning. Vannata is by far the better striker here, landing 4.41 significant strikes per 15 minutes, while Medeiros is absorbing 5.21 significant strikes per minute. Not to mention that Vannata does have the advantage in the grappling game, with 1.3 5 takedowns add a 42% takedown accuracy rating.
Vannata by Finish (TKO)
Rogerio Bontorin vs. Ray Borg
I don’t see Ray Borg competing very well here as his opponent, Rogero Bontorin, has the edge here. While Ray Borg is the better wrestler, I don’t see him being able to land those takedowns necessary to win this fight. As Bontorin comes into this fight with a 64% takedown defense rating. Bontorin is by far the better striker here, and because this fight is more likely to end standing there on the ground, there’s no doubt that Bontorin can win this fight by knockout.
Bontorin by Finish (TKO)
Brok Weaver vs. Kazula Vargas
Neither of these fighters has much UFC experience. This is Brok Weaver’s UFC debut and Kazula Vargas’ second fight in the company. Before the UFC, Weaver dominated in his professional fighting career. Landing 6.73 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 2.6. And an even crazier figure, he landed 74% of all strikes. Given his insane ability to dish out blows, and the two in reach advantage that he has over Vargas, he should be able to win this fight and possibly inside the distance.
Weaver by Finish (TKO)
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mara Romero Borella
This should be one of the closer fights of the night, simply because I can’t say that this fight will end inside the distance, but it’ll definitely end via a decision. My guess is that Mara Romero Borella will end up winning this fight by decision. This is because she does have an edge in the striking game, landing 2.98 significant strikes per 15 minutes. While Montana De la Rosa is absorbing 3.28 strikes per 15 minutes. If this fight does end up on the ground, Romero Borella is the one who’s more likely to get the takedowns, having higher takedown accuracy and takedown defense amongst these two fighters.
Romero Borella by Decision
Diego Sanchez vs. Michel Pereira
This would be my guess for the closest fight of the night, as either fighter can easily win by finish here. Although if I am to take a crack as to who will win this fight, Michel Periera would be my choice here. Both fighters seem similar in the striking department, while Periera has the advantage in the grappling game. Averaging 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 40% takedown accuracy, and 100% strike defense in his two UFC appearances. There’s a chance he can take it to the ground early and win this fight because of it.
Pereira by Finish (TKO)
Corey Anderson vs. Jan Blachowicz
There’s a chance that this fight could be competitive in close, but at the end of the day, Corey Anderson seems to be too much of a dominant force for Jan Blachowicz to win here. Anderson is landing 4.45 significant strikes per 15 minutes while only absorbing 2.18. Not only that, but he’s averaging 4.98 takedowns, 50% takedown accuracy, and a whopping 83% takedown defense ratings. Because of all these factors, Corey Anderson at the very least should be able to win this fight by decision. There’s a chance it could end inside the distance, being that this will be a five-round affair. But my most likely outcome here would be Anderson by decision.
Anderson by Decision