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PGA Rundown: The Open Championship

What to expect from this article:

The length of this article will vary from week-to-week. Some courses/events are cut-and-dry while others leave us with some major puzzles to piece together. Due to the contest sizes and popularity, I will be focusing most of my attention on DraftKings and FanDuel. Of course the statistical information will still apply to secondary sites like Fantasy Draft, Yahoo, and DRAFT.

On Monday I dive into the course and look at past results at the course. We hear about what the golfers say. In the rundown, we will use that information combined with additional data to make some lineup-building decisions.

If you are new to DFS Golf then you may be leaning more heavily on the names I write about at first, but the goal is for everyone to learn from the process I lay out from week-to-week. In a perfect world, everyone reads the course preview on Monday, does their own research on Tuesday and then checks back on Wednesday to see if we’re on the same page. It’s perfectly fine if we differ in some of our opinions. The final decision for lineup construction is always going to be yours but I will try to guide you to good decision-making processes with the best of my ability.

For weather decisions, I typically use a combination of sites such as WindFinder, Windy, Weather.gov, GolfWeather, and AccuWeather. The first thing I look for is overall wind conditions for the week. If there are at least two rounds forecasted at winds over 15 MPH then I head over the PGA Stats page to see who plays well in the wind. After that, I look for major weather angles from Thursday to Friday to see if either wave has an advantage. It’s rarely a huge advantage because even if one wave does have good tee times out of the gate then those golfers will find themselves with afternoon tee times on the weekend which provides a chance for the other wave to catch up. You can keep an eye on Rotogrinders Forum and wait for Kevin Roth’s forecast if you don’t want to dive into the forecasts yourself.

The last note I want to make is to make sure you check for pre-tournament withdraws. The last thing you want to do is draft a golfer that backed out of the event before it even started. You can follow PGATOUR Communications or Rotoworld Golf on Twitter to keep up with the latest field changes.


UPDATE at WEDNESDAY 10:00 AM ET:

  • After hearing Woodland’s presser, there is a slight concern about his wife being pregnant back home. Read the update in the Main Target section below. I still like him as a play but the risk has to be noted.
  • The Wednesday practice weather was windy and rainy. Should have more of that on the way. Here is the latest On-Site Weather Forecast.
  • Looking at it from the hour-by-hour, here is the Thursday Forecast and Friday Forecast.
  • Thursday looks like classic Open Championship weather (cold, wet, and windy) while Friday is similar but a little less wind on the current forecast. That could change as the day nears closer. Overall, there doesn’t look like a massive weather advantage that leaps off the page but we could see one develop if one of the tee-time ranges gets a heavy concentration of the wind and/or rain.
  • I’ve added some additional quotes to the Course Preview page.

UPDATE at WEDNESDAY 2:30 PM ET:

  • Got through with my builds and my largest exposure sit on McIlroy, Lowry, Hideki, Leishman, Casey, Adam Scott, Horschel, and Woodland.
  • Horschel became an easy filler due to price and current form. Also took some lower-end flyers on Chez Reavie, Sungjae Im, Jim Furyk, Patrick Reed, Lucas Glover, Louis Oosthuizen, and Russell Knox. That basically sums up my entire player pool across the industry this week. Have one share of Pieters and Sergio but that’s a shot in the dark, really. Oh yeah, can’t forget about a few DJ nibbles with his expected low ownership.
  • It’s become clear that Henrik Stenson is going to be the mega chalk. I have nothing against the play but the ownership is tough to swallow when I’m already on board with McIlroy as heavy chalk. I am going to fade Stenson personally and hope his season-long form wins out which suggests he’s more of a top-35 option rather than a top-10 option.
  • To recap the weather strategy, I don’t see an obvious advantage to any tee time right now so I’d surprisingly avoid any weather analysis unless you are building more than 20 lineups. Then you can start throwing in some stacks based on two to four-hour tee-time windows.
  • The early press conferences suggest that power is not required here and a lot of the holes force you to lay back to avoid the worst of the trouble. This falls in line with what we see most years at The Open Championship. A lot of irons off the tee. I wouldn’t argue against adding less-than-driver performance into the mix if you’re looking for a tiebreaker stat.

Weather Notes

The Open Championship is one of the events that is most susceptible to tee-time advantages. That’s what happens when you have a full field of golfers but don’t use split tees and then add in the United Kingdom climate. It’s the perfect storm for certain golfers to get stuck on the wrong side of the draw.

We should also remember that it’s also unlike other events in that you don’t just flip flop your tee times. As an example we’ll use Darren Clarke who is set to hit the opening tee shot on Thursday morning. You might expect him to have the latest tee time on Friday but he actually goes off at 11:36 AM on day two to kick off the Friday afternoon wave. Something to remember when checking your tee times.

I’ve been monitoring the on-site weather reports closely all week and the latest calls for passing showers on Thursday with winds around 8 MPH in the AM that increase to 13 MPH at mid-morning with gusts up to 25 MPH then calm back down to 10 MPH in the evening. Ideally you’d want the earliest possible starting time on Thursday but if the forecast shifts by even an hour then it’s no good.

As for Friday, the forecast is nearly identical.

As of Tuesday night I don’t see a distinct tee time section with a big advantage. I will provide an update in the morning.

How should you handle the weather situation? If one of the tee time ranges becomes an obvious spot to target then give those golfers a major boost. If you are doing MME builds then consider stacking certain sections of the draw across your lineups.

Main Targets

Rory McIlroy — Will he be popular? Yes. Does he deserve to be? Absolutely. In fact, I’d say he deserves to be even higher owned than his current ownership projection. He and DJ are in a class of their own when it comes to long-term metrics. They are 1 and 2 in 1-Year Baseline and 1-Year Go Low Percentage. Add in the Northern Ireland narrative, and we know McIlroy will have his full focus on this one. There will be very few golfers in the field that know the course better than him (G-Mac and Darren Clarke is probably the extent of that list). McIlroy has scheduled perfectly this year by staying Stateside for most of the year before finally heading across the pond last week for a prep start at the Scottish Open. This is golf, so there are always surprise failures but if I want to load up on a superstar this week, I want it to be RORY.

Shane Lowry — Sticking with the local knowledge narrative, Lowry is from the island so he’s well adapted to playing in blustery conditions. Over the years he’s built up his reputation for loving a good links layout and he arrives with a full tank of confidence. He had this to say just a few weeks ago, “I’m in a great place at the minute. There’s nothing more I can say really. I don’t think I’ve ever been in a better place than I am now. It’s exciting times for me and I’m looking forward to the next few weeks.” Lowry has some good results at Portrush as an amateur and also played the 2012 Irish Open so he’ll bring more course experience to the table than a large majority of the field. If I’m building a balanced lineup this week then Lowry will be the first or second guy I reach for.

Gary Woodland — If you want a baseline darling, then Woodland really stands out. He’s 18th in the field when it comes to 1-Year Baseline Performance, 15th in 1-Year Steady-Round Rate, and 17th in 1-Year Go-Low Round Rate. On top of that, he also bring elite hole-by-hole scoring into the equation. Using a site like Fantasy National we can look at the total number of DraftKings Points gained over the field during the last 12 months. That list goes Rory, Rose, and then Woodland. He’s played just once since his major win at Pebble Beach and he lost 3.3 strokes in R1 in that start before gaining 1.6 strokes in round two. You could say that winner’s hangover is now out of the way and he’s ready to get back in contention. You know he won’t back down if he gets in contention, now that he’s proven to himself that he can win a major.

If you are ultra-conservative with your risk tolerance then it should be noted that Woodland’s wife is pregnant back home in the States. He says the baby is planned to arrive in two weeks. If that means they are 38 weeks along then the chances of her going into labor are about 20 percent but if they are due to arrive in two weeks because of a planned C-Section then she may only be 37 weeks and the chances of her going into labor would be much lower. Even if she does go into labor, there would be no guarantee he withdraws from the event, since he made the decision to fly here and wouldn’t be able to make it back in time. Just something to keep in mind for Woodland this week.

Favorite Cash Game Options: Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Gary Woodland, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel I’d remove Woodland from cash-game builds just because of the risk laid out above. The goal of cash lineups is to eliminate as much risk as possible. Keep Woodland to GPPs only.

DraftKings Value Fillers (sub $7k): Billy Horschel, Aaron Wise, Joaquin Niemann, Jazz Janewattanananond, Kyle Stanley, Doc Redman, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin, Dylan Frittelli, Andrew Putnam

FanDuel Value Fillers (sub $9k): Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Aaron Wise, Rory Sabbatini, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Knox, Jazz Janewattanananond, Kyle Stanley, Kevin Streelman, Doc Redman

Tournament Monsters

This is the area where I will focus on course and/or tournament history.

Instead of looking at total strokes gained or strokes gained per round, we will look at something I call a Monster Score. A Monster Round is when a golfer gains at least four strokes over the field in any single round. These are the type of rounds that rocket a golfer onto the first page of the leaderboard. A Monster Dud is when a golfer loses two or more strokes to the field. These are the type of rounds that put your golfer on cut-sweat alert, if they happen in round one or two. A Monster Score is a differential between those two.

Here are the top Open Championship Monsters over the last 10 years:

+8
Henrik Stenson (10 Monsters, 2 Duds)
Sergio Garcia (9 Monsters, 1 Dud)
Zach Johnson (12 Monsters, 4 Duds)

+6
Jordan Spieth (9 Monsters, 3 Duds)

+5
Rory Mcilroy (8 Monsters, 3 Duds)

+4
Marc Leishman (7 Monsters, 3 Duds)
Phil Mickelson (7 Monsters, 3 Duds)
Adam Scott (6 Monsters, 2 Duds)

While the courses change each year, the general theme of playing links-style courses in cold and windy conditions remains the same. Stenson is the most “in form” of the golfers with a +8 score which explains why his projected ownership is through the roof.

Spieth and Mickelson are also off their games but guys like Rory, Leishmand, and Scott definitely interest me.

Ownership Thoughts

Dustin Johnson — It’s pretty rare that we ever see DJ dip below $11K on DraftKings. Yet, here he is and despite the big drop in price, he’s currently projected at sub 15% ownership on DK and sub 20% ownership on FanDuel. Johnson has had a few bad putting weeks recently and got loose with the driver in Detroit. His game is not in the best shape but he’s one of the few names in the field that are capable of stomping on the field. I wouldn’t play him over Rory in single entry but as soon as you start adding more entries, he becomes more and more appealing as a high-upside contrarian pick.

Matt Wallace — The Englishman seems to be the trending sleeper pick this week. He did finish T3 and T12 at the last two majors so even the casual golf fan is probably itching to click his name. Is he worth eating the chalk for? I’m leaning no. He ranks 30th or worse in all three 1-Year Baseline metrics in the stats table below. He also brings major blowup potential to the table with his inaccuracy off the tee. Just looking at his PGA TOUR starts this season, he’s hit fewer fairways than the field in seven straight starts. He’s managed top 30s in five of those but missed the cut in two of them. Across the pond he ranks 156th in driving accuracy this year. I love his winning pedigree but I don’t want to pay a heavy ownership tax just to get it.

Stats

First I will point out a few stat concerns from some golfers near the top of the pricing board.

Francesco Molinari — The defending champion is playing like the old version of himself lately. By that I mean he strikes the ball just fine but can’t make a putt. He’s lost 3.7 or more strokes putting in three of his last five starts. No thanks.

Justin Thomas — Similar to Molinari above, JT is also lost with the flat stick. He’s lost strokes putting in seven straight measured events with four straight being -2.7 SGP or worse. This is a favorite angle for me to fade because most touts seem to take the opposite approach. They see a huge putting slump and think it’s bound to turn around. I’ve dove into the stats and found out that putting form this bad does not generally yield top 10s. I’m sure JT will figure it out soon enough but with high projected ownership, I’d rather look elsewhere and wait for Thomas to progress with the putter before re-investing.

Jordan Spieth — There is a lot wrong with Spieth’s game right now and it all relates to his ball-striking numbers. he’s hit fewer fairways than the field in 16 of his last 18 starts. He’s lost strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts. He’s hit fewer greens than the field in three straight events. Add in a minor injury he’s nursing and Spieth drifts to the back of the pile for me.

Baseline Stats

Baseline stats should be at the core of our research each week.

If we’re looking at course-fit angles then we want to use a long-term view for baseline numbers one-year stats are actually where the honey hole is.

1-Year Baseline is the performance (per round) across the PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry, and European Tour, over the last 52 weeks. That number is then adjusted to this week’s field.

1-Year Steady looks at the percentage of rounds where a golfer beats the field by at least one shot (PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry, and European Tour, last 52 weeks, strength of field adjusted).

1-Year Go-Low looks at the percentage of rounds where a golfer gains at least three shots over the field in a single round (PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry, and European Tour, last 52 weeks, strength of field adjusted).

Proj SG is a ranking metric that projects the total number of strokes gained for a golfer this week. This is a combination of the baseline stats with the course-fit stats. Monster score and current-form trends play a small part, as well.

Golfer
DK
FD
1-Year Baseline
1-Year Steady
1-Year Go-Low
Proj SG
Rory Mcilroy$11,600$12,0002.0562.79%37.21%13.03
Dustin Johnson$10,900$11,9002.1169.32%48.86%9.08
Patrick Cantlay$9,000$10,8001.9170.00%31.25%7.68
Justin Rose$9,900$11,6001.8863.51%35.14%7.66
Brooks Koepka$11,400$12,2001.4959.38%31.25%7.44
Adam Scott$8,800$10,5001.6561.19%31.34%7.28
Tiger Woods$10,200$11,700265.52%29.31%7.13
Xander Schauffele$9,500$11,0001.5361.63%32.56%6.64
Rickie Fowler$9,300$11,1001.4861.90%32.14%6.29
Hideki Matsuyama$8,500$10,3001.5661.22%27.55%6.27
Matt Kuchar$8,700$10,0001.4757.78%28.89%6.12
Jason Day$8,600$10,4001.5160.26%28.21%6.05
Jon Rahm$10,600$11,3001.6263.10%32.14%5.9
Graeme Mcdowell$7,900$9,7000.2642.11%14.47%5.25
Webb Simpson$7,600$9,4001.6866.28%24.42%5.19
Tommy Fleetwood$9,700$10,9001.4358.04%24.11%5.17
Sergio Garcia$7,800$9,9001.1252.50%27.50%5
Henrik Stenson$8,400$10,1000.7751.28%14.10%4.93
Bryson DeChambeau$9,200$10,6001.5565.22%29.35%4.86
Gary Woodland$8,200$10,0001.461.22%27.55%4.8
Shane Lowry$7,900$9,8000.7848.10%20.25%4.76
Marc Leishman$7,700$9,7001.0660.23%22.73%4.59
Paul Casey$8,300$9,9001.0848.81%25.00%4.42
Justin Thomas$9,100$10,7001.7567.07%31.71%4.21
Louis Oosthuizen$8,000$10,2001.0552.27%20.45%4.07
Jordan Spieth$8,900$11,2000.7145.24%26.19%3.91
Billy Horschel$6,900$8,2001.0653.00%22.00%3.58
Patrick Reed$7,400$9,6000.7250.00%16.04%3.58
Matt Wallace$8,100$9,7000.7851.79%21.43%3.38
Chez Reavie$7,100$9,1000.8147.73%21.59%3.19
Zach Johnson$7,200$8,9000.4440.00%15.00%3.18
Jim Furyk$7,100$8,6001.150.00%25.00%3.15
Lucas Glover$6,500$8,3001.0250.00%21.43%2.88
Rafa Cabrera Bello$7,500$9,3000.9552.68%19.64%2.87
Sungjae Im$7,000$8,7000.7447.73%15.91%2.8
Tony Finau$7,800$9,8001.3555.00%28.00%2.71
Aaron Wise$6,900$8,4000.7350.63%20.25%2.65
Hao Tong Li$7,300$9,0000.8352.75%21.98%2.62
Tyrrell Hatton$7,400$9,4000.8346.81%20.21%2.43
Keegan Bradley$7,000$8,8000.7952.08%22.92%2.26
Rory Sabbatini$7,400$8,5000.5451.72%19.54%2.21
Adam Hadwin$6,900$8,5000.7846.59%19.32%2.17
Byeong Hun An$7,000$8,8000.744.21%21.05%2.08
Erik van Rooyen$7,100$8,6000.3543.43%15.15%2.03
Emiliano Grillo$7,100$8,8000.4745.65%18.48%1.95
Thomas Pieters$7,000$8,7000.5141.25%17.50%1.88
Ian Poulter$7,700$9,5000.7346.74%22.83%1.76
Joaquin Niemann$6,900$8,9000.3240.43%14.89%1.7
Russell Knox$7,100$8,9000.3934.78%13.04%1.68
Kevin Kisner$7,300$9,0000.535.11%21.28%1.57
Danny Willett$7,500$9,3000.1742.53%14.94%1.33
Jazz Janewattananond$6,600$7,700-0.2134.21%23.68%1.31
Ryan Palmer$6,500$8,5000.4847.14%18.57%1.26
Matthew Fitzpatrick$7,600$9,5000.7440.63%20.83%1.23
Francesco Molinari$9,400$11,4000.8538.89%20.83%1.13
Abraham Ancer$7,200$8,8000.5941.67%22.92%1.08
Kyle Stanley$6,700$8,3000.3548.89%18.89%1.01
Eddie Pepperell$7,600$9,4000.5946.75%19.48%0.97
Kevin Streelman$7,000$8,2000.3545.68%12.35%0.93
Andrew Putnam$6,600$8,0000.5851.19%14.29%0.85
Brandt Snedeker$7,400$9,2000.5744.44%15.15%0.83
Lee Westwood$7,400$9,0000.5941.10%23.29%0.82
Dylan Frittelli$6,900$8,8000.4137.38%17.76%0.73
Nate Lashley$6,300$8,4000.1641.03%11.54%0.73
Thorbjorn Olesen$7,300$8,9000.6650.00%12.82%0.72
Mike Lorenzo-Vera$7,000$8,3000.636.71%20.25%0.67
Jason Kokrak$7,200$8,3000.752.08%17.71%0.65
Andrea Pavan$6,400$7,0000.3538.37%19.77%0.64
Sung Kang$6,300$8,2000.2244.19%19.77%0.56
Bubba Watson$7,200$9,1000.344.59%18.92%0.48
Doc Redman$6,200$7,900-0.334.38%15.63%0.4
C.T. Pan$6,800$8,3000.4341.86%18.60%0.39
Brandon Wu$6,400$7,3001.1275.00%25.00%0.33
Phil Mickelson$7,500$9,8000.3744.44%19.44%0.1
Luke List$6,700$8,2000.1941.33%20.00%-0.21
Miguel Angel Jimenez$6,300$7,200-1.7718.18%9.09%-0.23
Brian Harman$6,700$8,400-0.437.62%11.88%-0.26
Keith Mitchell$6,500$8,1000.1943.68%21.84%-0.28
Chan Kim$6,100$7,400-3.490.00%0.00%-0.29
Mikumu Horikawa$6,100$7,000-1.490.00%0.00%-0.31
Tom Lehman$6,100$7,300-0.2833.33%0.00%-0.38
David Lipsky$6,500$7,800-0.1236.46%12.50%-0.4
Kurt Kitayama$6,300$7,600-0.5526.87%10.45%-0.44
Doyeob Mun$6,000NA-0.9875.00%0.00%-0.51
Romain Langasque$6,600$7,0000.4640.38%17.31%-0.53
Padraig Harrington$7,200$8,600-0.2730.65%11.29%-0.56
Benjamin Hebert$6,500$7,000-0.1438.16%13.16%-0.59
Joel Dahmen$6,400$8,2000.1743.62%12.77%-0.59
Cameron Smith$6,900$8,7000.5443.48%18.48%-0.63
Justin Harding$6,400$8,0000.5741.18%23.53%-0.63
Chris Wood$6,300$7,500-1.1725.64%7.69%-0.64
Christiaan Bezuidenhout$6,500$7,700-0.1336.96%16.30%-0.66
Prom Meesawat$6,400$7,000-0.625.00%16.67%-0.74
Lucas Bjerregaard$6,800$8,7000.1639.56%17.58%-0.79
Darren Clarke$6,200$7,500-6.860.00%0.00%-0.79
Takumi Kanaya$6,100$7,300-1.2916.67%16.67%-0.86
Richard Sterne$6,400$7,500-0.1737.84%10.81%-0.92
Robert Macintyre$6,700$7,000-0.135.09%10.53%-0.96
Andrew Johnston$6,800$8,100-0.4628.36%4.48%-0.98
Joost Luiten$6,800$7,9000.4539.68%14.29%-1
Garrick Porteous$6,000$7,000-2.590.00%0.00%-1.12
Charley Hoffman$6,700$8,4000.1339.02%13.41%-1.13
Oliver Wilson$6,400$7,200-0.0638.33%13.33%-1.17
Adria Arnaus$6,600$7,500-0.0840.00%15.00%-1.3
Jimmy Walker$6,600$8,100-0.1940.00%11.11%-1.3
Stewart Cink$6,400$7,600-0.1137.29%13.56%-1.31
Shugo Imahira$6,400$7,700-0.6618.75%12.50%-1.32
Corey Conners$6,300$7,900-0.1338.10%14.29%-1.33
Paul Waring$6,600$7,000-0.0134.33%11.94%-1.34
Tom Lewis$6,700$7,8000.1541.25%12.50%-1.35
Ashton Turner$6,000$7,000-3.410.00%0.00%-1.36
Paul Lawrie$6,100$7,000-3.80.00%0.00%-1.37
J.B. Holmes$6,600$8,100-0.2340.30%8.96%-1.5
Mikko Korhonen$6,500$7,5000.0241.77%11.39%-1.56
Alexander Bjork$6,700$7,700-0.1828.38%14.86%-1.8
Si Woo Kim$6,700$8,1000.1642.86%17.35%-1.83
Adrian Otaegui$6,500$7,000-0.1125.58%8.14%-1.92
Andy Sullivan$7,000$7,9000.0844.19%10.47%-2
Yuki Inamori$6,200$7,600-1.950.00%0.00%-2.01
Nino Bertasio$6,100$7,000-0.8630.38%8.86%-2.01
Jake McLeod$6,100$7,100-0.7734.09%11.36%-2.04
Sam Locke$6,100$7,000-1.2415.38%0.00%-2.06
Alex Noren$7,300$9,1000.0437.18%12.82%-2.11
Branden Grace$7,300$9,200-0.1531.63%8.16%-2.19
Ernie Els$6,200$7,400-0.1231.65%11.39%-2.55
Alexander Levy$6,500$8,000-0.536.92%9.23%-2.58
Yuta Ikeda$6,200$7,800-1.0426.09%4.35%-2.71
Kiradech Aphibarnrat$6,800$8,400-0.0738.55%13.25%-2.78
Bernd Wiesberger$7,100$9,600-0.0835.71%10.71%-2.85
Matthew Baldwin$6,000$7,000-0.8617.14%5.71%-2.95
David Duval$6,100NA-3.5211.11%0.00%-2.98
Patton Kizzire$6,300$7,500-0.3232.22%8.89%-2.99
Dimitrios Papadatos$6,100$7,100-0.8730.00%10.00%-3.2
Shubhankar Sharma$6,100$7,400-1.129.07%9.30%-3.36
Brandon Stone$6,500$7,300-0.8928.95%14.47%-3.64
Shaun Norris$6,100$7,100-1.716.13%9.68%-3.76
Zander Lombard$6,300$7,200-1.6625.71%11.43%-3.82
Robert Rock$6,600$7,000-0.0830.38%8.86%-3.85
Connor Syme$6,300$7,000-1.2917.78%2.22%-3.95
Sanghyun Park$6,200$7,200-1.5328.00%0.00%-4.09
Callum Shinkwin$6,200NA-0.4131.15%9.84%-4.29
Austin Connelly$6,000$7,400-1.4517.31%0.00%-4.6
Ryan Fox$6,700$7,900-0.4130.38%6.33%-4.64
Jorge Campillo$6,900$7,800-0.0542.22%11.11%-5.06
Dongkyu JangNANA-1.020.00%0.00%-5.65
Andrew Wilson$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-5.65
Yoshinori Fujimoto$6,200$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-5.79
Gunn Charoenkul$6,100$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-5.79
Yosuke Asaji$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-5.79
Matthias Schmid$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-5.79
Innchoon Hwang$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-5.79
Jack Senior$6,200NA-2.358.33%4.17%-6.58
Curtis Knipes$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-6.65
Thomas Thurloway$6,200$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-6.79
Isidro Benitez$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-6.79
James Sugrue$6,000$7,000-1.020.00%0.00%-6.79

Course-Fit Stats

Lastly, we can look at performance under similar course and/or tournament conditions.

Remember that sample size is oh-so-important here, which is why the Number of Rounds is included for each angle. Each angle column is a per-round performance number under those conditions (PGA TOUR rounds only).

The Angles SG column combines all of those angles into one number.

Angles Top 20 Rate is the percentage of events where a golfer posted a finish that was top-20 worthy (versus a TOUR-average field) based primarily on similar course/tournament conditions.

Golfer
DK
FD
strong field
Rds
hard courses
Rds
coastal
Rds
windy rounds
Rds
Angles SG
Angles Top 20 Rate
Rory Mcilroy$11,600$12,0002.152901.741262.44391.99882.0673.31%
Patrick Cantlay$9,000$10,8001.791321.9441.6382.05511.8472.48%
Justin Rose$9,900$11,6001.952881.831422.52561.581001.9262.82%
Dustin Johnson$10,900$11,9002.312752.21421.72902.291212.262.52%
Adam Scott$8,800$10,5001.672851.451451.24541.361131.5361.81%
Jason Day$8,600$10,4001.792731.791421.96952.05981.8761.23%
Xander Schauffele$9,500$11,0001.51481.26701.07550.99661.2959.66%
Tiger Woods$10,200$11,7001.621181.12481.18271.34351.4358.33%
Jon Rahm$10,600$11,3001.581531.28711.9481.5571.5657.06%
Matt Kuchar$8,700$10,0001.462971.681611.741131.41481.5555.63%
Hideki Matsuyama$8,500$10,3001.583251.211301.41692.16961.5854.45%
Rickie Fowler$9,300$11,1001.673171.791501.15601.511171.6353.78%
Henrik Stenson$8,400$10,1001.512381.721132.46321.55751.6553.62%
Jordan Spieth$8,900$11,2001.493022.191601.611081.361341.6550.86%
Paul Casey$8,300$9,9001.442811.781650.98661.651191.5349.56%
Webb Simpson$7,600$9,4001.222501.131461.55911.541051.3149.06%
Tommy Fleetwood$9,700$10,9001.571581.33720.85321.76551.4847.70%
Brooks Koepka$11,400$12,2001.542572.191360.88541.171081.5746.41%
Justin Thomas$9,100$10,7001.732451.471271.17731.121091.4846.19%
Patrick Reed$7,400$9,6001.033131.311731.08901.231471.1546.02%
Francesco Molinari$9,400$11,4001.082381.011270.81620.53940.9444.00%
Tony Finau$7,800$9,8001.382081.341341.27801.341291.3543.31%
Sergio Garcia$7,800$9,9001.122121.341241.12301.92871.3442.79%
Bryson DeChambeau$9,200$10,6001.211570.47790.59631.01800.9242.65%
Matt Wallace$8,100$9,7000.83381.09220.3880.66140.8441.71%
Chris Wood$6,300$7,5000.29620.89380.6518-0.33240.441.48%
Thomas Pieters$7,000$8,7000.6780.44460.22141.94300.7741.15%
Louis Oosthuizen$8,000$10,2000.962501.581381.27360.851031.1340.58%
Marc Leishman$7,700$9,7000.972920.881341.11981.011200.9939.83%
Miguel Angel Jimenez$6,300$7,200-0.07380.63220.39120.86130.3339.29%
Billy Horschel$6,900$8,2000.622700.651460.52990.841270.6639.10%
Jason Kokrak$7,200$8,3000.671870.741280.69870.141290.5638.98%
Chez Reavie$7,100$9,1000.751280.77921.37800.75980.8838.89%
Sungjae Im$7,000$8,7000.62360.77180.4223-0.04270.4338.73%
Eddie Pepperell$7,600$9,4000.53400.77121.8142.32161.1437.16%
Jim Furyk$7,100$8,6000.711860.971340.69691.051100.8636.55%
Gary Woodland$8,200$10,0001.162750.581401.55921.181241.136.30%
Emiliano Grillo$7,100$8,8000.762200.741160.7740.991170.835.98%
Brandt Snedeker$7,400$9,2000.492210.631350.671221.251280.7235.43%
Phil Mickelson$7,500$9,8000.892751.111461.92581.311061.1335.13%
Tyrrell Hatton$7,400$9,4001.061380.82620.66280.86500.9434.15%
Doc Redman$6,200$7,900-1.4880.7460.144-1.383-0.5134.04%
Lucas Glover$6,500$8,3000.431390.761200.77680.771110.6634.01%
Byeong Hun An$7,000$8,8000.521780.381250.17380.71920.4933.40%
Chan Kim$6,100$7,400-0.7512-0.678-0.356-1.113-0.6733.33%
Ryan Palmer$6,500$8,5000.331630.581020.23730.61120.4433.18%
Graeme Mcdowell$7,900$9,7000.381600.291310.34950.441190.3733.13%
Ian Poulter$7,700$9,5000.792160.341160.46680.621080.6133.12%
Shane Lowry$7,900$9,8000.41510.761100.97611.06690.7132.71%
Jazz Janewattananond$6,600$7,7000.9460.538-2.272-0.3440.232.65%
Zach Johnson$7,200$8,9000.752690.751561.031010.581310.7731.92%
Russell Knox$7,100$8,9000.452260.31200.971070.81360.631.48%
Adam Hadwin$6,900$8,5000.481890.31100.36700.071240.3231.17%
Erik van Rooyen$7,100$8,6001.37201.6161.481.5781.4930.77%
Lucas Bjerregaard$6,800$8,700-0.5328-0.3320-4.4540.413-0.5230.65%
Mike Lorenzo-Vera$7,000$8,3000.28161.28-0.0741.8140.6730.43%
Joaquin Niemann$6,900$8,9000.62460.124-0.95141.3300.4930.38%
Rafa Cabrera Bello$7,500$9,3000.971640.8920.84490.92860.9129.93%
Danny Willett$7,500$9,3000.021310.51800.72360.45480.3229.52%
Keegan Bradley$7,000$8,8000.752730.221370.19700.651250.5528.86%
Sung Kang$6,300$8,2000.051150.48980.16720.31970.2528.44%
Lee Westwood$7,400$9,0000.51420.62820.67300.26520.5128.42%
Charley Hoffman$6,700$8,4000.692581.121720.01910.871440.7528.06%
Nate Lashley$6,300$8,400-0.212-0.1160.4335-0.16300.0627.64%
Kevin Kisner$7,300$9,0000.612590.531440.891160.491400.6227.23%
Rory Sabbatini$7,400$8,5000.641050.51750.141120.461080.4326.96%
Bubba Watson$7,200$9,1000.962841.27110-0.36550.56760.8426.55%
Andy Sullivan$7,000$7,900-0.1374-0.09420.2318-0.0431-0.0625.61%
Alex Noren$7,300$9,1000.481380.58700.25300.7520.5325.19%
Abraham Ancer$7,200$8,8000.23720.1432-0.02410.56560.2524.63%
Matthew Fitzpatrick$7,600$9,5000.711400.47800.54310.43570.5924.41%
Thorbjorn Olesen$7,300$8,9000.62940.3538-0.25180.44270.4623.91%
Kevin Streelman$7,000$8,2000.241990.231120.97930.521360.4423.77%
Brian Harman$6,700$8,4000.32500.171280.241070.541450.3223.05%
Justin Harding$6,400$8,0000.1718-0.1610-1.0940.5390.0522.95%
Aaron Wise$6,900$8,4000.68760.93320.36340.43350.6222.64%
J.B. Holmes$6,600$8,1000.472460.131390.08800.061100.2622.34%
Hao Tong Li$7,300$9,0000.09850.76381.09140.76230.4422.27%
Luke List$6,700$8,2000.731160.67840.49630.85880.721.93%
Cameron Smith$6,900$8,7000.211580.04900.5379-0.04710.221.43%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat$6,800$8,4000.49127-0.4464-1.48210.06470.0320.47%
Andrew Putnam$6,600$8,0000.32670.38350.52440.63640.4720.40%
Kyle Stanley$6,700$8,3000.551740.551020.23790.531070.520.23%
Keith Mitchell$6,500$8,100-0.3531.27180.11430.38400.1819.63%
Branden Grace$7,300$9,2000.422180.811370.64620.251030.5218.96%
Joel Dahmen$6,400$8,2000.24500.5360.63550.7550.5318.75%
Si Woo Kim$6,700$8,100-0.03178-0.13790.37760.561060.1617.86%
Austin Connelly$6,000$7,4001.944-1.9580.6310-3.8411-1.3316.98%
Dylan Frittelli$6,900$8,800-0.5432-0.0730-0.1210.8923-0.0116.86%
Tom Lehman$6,100$7,300-0.86-0.644-0.799-1.953-0.9116.67%
Benjamin Hebert$6,500$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.8716.67%
Stewart Cink$6,400$7,6000.351540.35990.421030.581040.4216.67%
Jimmy Walker$6,600$8,1000.262380.571380.18970.881270.4616.25%
Andrew Johnston$6,800$8,1000.04390.1639-0.35230.2190.0415.97%
Jorge Campillo$6,900$7,800-1.5414-1.648-0.772-1.275-1.4615.85%
Robert Rock$6,600$7,000-2.12-2.12-2.112-4.821-2.4815.22%
C.T. Pan$6,800$8,3000.43103-0.28630.6550.52680.3315.05%
Darren Clarke$6,200$7,500-2.9942-3.0934-3.218-1.7924-2.814.29%
Joost Luiten$6,800$7,9000.4491-0.0446-0.15200.58340.313.51%
Robert Macintyre$6,700$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.8712.50%
Andrea Pavan$6,400$7,0000.8560.856-0.9101.0540.912.24%
Patton Kizzire$6,300$7,500-0.46142-1.24760.8270-0.0493-0.2811.81%
Adria Arnaus$6,600$7,5000.2540.244-0.286-0.800.0511.54%
David Lipsky$6,500$7,800-0.0642-0.68140.4810-0.9815-0.2711.11%
Paul Waring$6,600$7,000-1.594-1.594-0.662-0.582-1.2610.91%
Romain Langasque$6,600$7,0000.1180.194-0.084-0.655-0.0910.81%
Padraig Harrington$7,200$8,600-0.4994-1.166-0.4853-0.6156-0.6610.46%
Corey Conners$6,300$7,9000.07380.226-0.2244-0.1255-0.0610.26%
Bernd Wiesberger$7,100$9,6000.381040.0866-0.97200.1430.1310.09%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout$6,500$7,700-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.879.76%
Alexander Levy$6,500$8,000-0.6552-0.8324-0.5815-0.2716-0.619.49%
Mikko Korhonen$6,500$7,500-1.564-1.912-0.910-2.521-1.799.26%
Ernie Els$6,200$7,400-0.75156-0.59111-0.4363-0.0389-0.58.60%
Richard Sterne$6,400$7,500-0.7144-0.120-0.7713-1.5620-0.767.14%
Nino Bertasio$6,100$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.876.98%
Tom Lewis$6,700$7,800-1.0214-0.33100.664-0.763-0.546.90%
Shubhankar Sharma$6,100$7,400-0.7236-1.02120.414-1.4614-0.866.90%
Adrian Otaegui$6,500$7,000-1.0414-1.116-0.910-1.235-1.096.85%
Alexander Bjork$6,700$7,700-0.9620-1.6910-1.794-0.076-1.086.67%
Callum Shinkwin$6,200NA-2.534-2.534-2.544-3.132-2.616.25%
Ryan Fox$6,700$7,900-0.14400.2220.18120.67140.136.13%
Kurt Kitayama$6,300$7,600-0.044-0.044142.7220.665.71%
Oliver Wilson$6,400$7,200-1.2710-1.086-0.772-0.80-1.134.92%
Zander Lombard$6,300$7,200-0.428-0.428-0.438-4.294-0.964.00%
Jake McLeod$6,100$7,1000.034-0.90-0.910-0.800.053.85%
Brandon Stone$6,500$7,300-1.3546-1.1822-0.8312-1.1813-1.213.76%
Connor Syme$6,300$7,000-1.652-1.652-1.662-21-1.692.27%
Yuta Ikeda$6,200$7,800-0.6653-0.836-1.0322-1.2822-0.852.23%
Brandon Wu$6,400$7,3001.2541.2441.234-0.801.270.00%
Mikumu Horikawa$6,100$7,000-1.372-1.372-1.382-0.80-1.350.00%
Doyeob Mun$6,000NA-0.890-0.90-0.910-3.542-3.610.00%
Prom Meesawat$6,400$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Takumi Kanaya$6,100$7,300-1.034-0.90-1.452-5.851-1.820.00%
Garrick Porteous$6,000$7,000-4.042-4.042-0.910-0.80-4.020.00%
Shugo Imahira$6,400$7,700-1.2518-1.698-0.2712-1.893-1.080.00%
Ashton Turner$6,000$7,000-4.752-4.762-4.772-0.80-4.730.00%
Paul Lawrie$6,100$7,000-0.7216-1.18-0.7412-1.3810-0.930.00%
Yuki Inamori$6,200$7,600-3.294-3.294-0.374-3.24-2.530.00%
Sam Locke$6,100$7,000-0.824-0.834-0.844-4.311-1.080.00%
Matthew Baldwin$6,000$7,000-0.814-0.76-1.792-1.682-1.020.00%
David Duval$6,100NA-3.8112-4.798-3.2738-1.9621-3.150.00%
Dimitrios Papadatos$6,100$7,100-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Shaun Norris$6,100$7,100-1.9118-0.4210-0.088-3.095-1.320.00%
Sanghyun Park$6,200$7,200-1.979-0.616-1.772-0.486-1.210.00%
Dongkyu JangNANA-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Andrew Wilson$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Yoshinori Fujimoto$6,200$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Gunn Charoenkul$6,100$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Yosuke Asaji$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Matthias Schmid$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Innchoon Hwang$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Jack Senior$6,200NA-4.24-4.214-4.2241.181-3.770.00%
Curtis Knipes$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Thomas Thurloway$6,200$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
Isidro Benitez$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%
James Sugrue$6,000$7,000-0.890-0.90-0.910-0.80-0.870.00%

rundown

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