fbpx

nhl

NHL Rundown 11.21.2019

What to Expect:

Welcome one and all to the NHL Rundown! My content is normally laid out in this manner. If you like the content, feel free to subscribe here. In the Rundown, I will be breaking down my top plays at each position, and some of my top stacks. In this article, I will explain why each player is in here and whether they are preferable in cash, GPPS, or both. A lot of what I look at (and what’s baked into the projections — which you can find here), is possession and opportunity based stats. This is because these stats tend to be the most sticky when compared to efficiency-based metrics in hockey. With that all said, let’s dive in! 

General Thoughts: On any given slate, we want to identify not only those who might have the highest upside individually, but which stacks are going to go off. Almost all slates of various sizes feature this idea if you look at the winning lineups. This is what we want to look for when building lineups. We are looking for upside, not just for safety.


Slate Thoughts:  Another massive slate on the docket tonight, as we deal with the annoying pre-Thanksgiving schedule. Though tonight should be plenty of fun getting 13 games to watch yet again. On Tuesday, the highest owned player, MacKinnon, was around 14% owned, which means we can rest assured that ownership is irrelevant here again tonight. Play the best plays!


Any Updates Will Appear Here: 


Centers

Alexsander Barkov I don’t know if I would consider the Florida Panthers the chalk tonight, they do currently own the highest implied team total at 3.8 going up against the Anaheim Ducks. No matter what the matchup has been, Aleksander Barkov has absolutely smashed for the last 3 weeks – scoring no less than 13 DraftKings points in every game since October 30th. The Anaheim Ducks seem like a perfect team for the Panthers to tee off against. Currently allowing the fifth-most Corsi attempts per 60 minutes, and the third-most expected goals allowed per game. I don’t see how the Panthers come out of this game without scoring five goals as a team. And the top-line will most likely be responsible for a good portion of them.

Nathan MacKinnon – Nathan MacKinnon yet again comes out as my top projected skater for the slate. And who can argue against that, he has been absolutely dominant. Putting up 31 and 21.8 DraftKings points in his last two games. I don’t believe ownership is going to play a huge role in my decision-making tonight, but it is something that’s interesting to think about, especially for MacKinnon. I’m not sure if he’s going to be chalk because of his recent performances, or low owned because of a matchup against a Minnesota Wild team that doesn’t give up a whole lot defensively. I am a huge believer in stacking three members of this power-play unit where the Wild are weaker defensively relative to the league and they are on even strength. MacKinnon can certainly end up being a top play of the night yet again.


Wingers

David Pastrnak – The top line for Boston, David Pastrnak especially, just goes off whenever they feel like it seems. Last time out against New Jersey, for example, he scored 30.3 DraftKings points on two goals and six shots on goal. The game before that against Washington, he scored a goal on five shots.  The bottom line, David Pastrnak has been pretty damn good. Normally I would say that Buffalo has a decent of top-line defensively that I would be a little bit questionable to pay 8500 for him. But on this night, the Sabres are rolling out Jimmy Vesey into a top-line role. Something that I don’t think will be conducive to stronger defensive play. This should give the opportunity to someone like Pastrnak to create some kind of production, whether this is a goal or an assist. I’m fairly certain that this is the reason why Pastrnak has almost a 1.5 point lead in my projection model for wings above anyone else.

Patrick Kane – Vegas lines currently have Chicago as a bit of an underdog here at home against Tampa Bay. But they have been getting sharp money, that moves the line from 131 down to 115. Which means I’m not alone and saying that Chicago has a legitimate chance of winning this game. So I don’t think I’ll be doing this because of their five-on-five prowess over Tampa. The Lightning gives up plenty of opportunities to opponents on the penalty kill.  Allowing the 12th most Corsi attempts per 60 minutes in these situations. Patrick Kane has the highest usage of any skater on the Chicago Blackhawks as he is their best player. If I had to make a contrarian pick tonight, this would be it.


Defensemen

Brent Burns – This will be the third time already this season that the Vegas Knights and the San Jose Sharks have played each other. If you recall, these two teams played a home-and-home for their first two games of the season. Games in which Brent Burns scored 13.6 and 11.8 DraftKings points respectively. Those are good numbers for Burns, but they won’t win you any of the big tournaments. Tonight those should be different, as both teams have had enough time to solidify some semblance of their identities for the season. And, as per usual, Brent Burns has continued to be a high Corsi kind of guy. Look for him again to be in the mix for a top defenseman of the slate.

Dougie Hamilton – I hate to use guys against the Flyers, but Philadelphia tends to struggle this season against teams that do well in the puck possession department. And Carolina is certainly that, coming into this game with a league-leading 54.33% Corsi for percentage. This should be a big game for the Carolina Hurricane, especially Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton has had a string of great performances in five out of his last six games, scoring no less than 12.8 DraftKings points in all of his last six games. Plus, Hamilton is on the top power-play unit, against a Philadelphia Flyers team that is slightly worse than league average and expected goals allowed 460 minutes on the penalty kill. I imagine that this will be a much better game for him that he had a couple of weeks ago against the same team in Philadelphia.


Goalies

Tuuka Rask –At some point, one of these goalie plays have to come to fruition. Or maybe it’s a curse that my top projected goalie on any particular night will struggle. Either way though, I still see Tuukka Rask as the top overall goalie on the night. I don’t see this Buffalo team putting up much of a fight on the road against Boston. Luckily, I do still believe that the shot volume will be there to the extent that Tuukka Rask will have some upside, even if he does allow a goal or two.

Thomas Greiss – The New York Islanders have played the Pittsburgh Penguins twice in the last few weeks. Resulting in two losses by one goal in each. Thomas Greiss did not play in either of those games, which could be the difference between a win and a loss for the Islanders. Since the Crosby injury, the Penguins haven’t had too many issues, but they are yet again playing a strong defensive team in the Islanders, and this time, on the road. I like Greiss as a tournament option tonight because of the amount of shot volume that I expect to see here.


Top Stacks

  • Preferred stacks would be 3-3
  1. FLA 1 – (Barkov-Huberdeau-Dadonov)
  2. BOS  1 – (Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak)
  3. COL 1- (MacKinnon-Donskoi-Burakovsky)
  4. CBJ 2 (Nyquist-Jenner-Bjorkstrand)

 

Values

C: Boone Jenner, Nazem Kadri, Carl Soderberg, Nick Foligno, Jonathan Toews, Jason Spezza

W: Andrew Shaw, Craig Smith, Jason Zucker, Jake DeBrusk, Gustav Nyquist, Frank Vatrano

D: Brent Seabrook, Samuel Girard, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Filip Hronek, Matt Niskanen, Jared Spurgeon

Player Most Likely To Score 2+ Goals: Aleksander Barkov

rundown

Salmagundi brigantine port scourge of the seven seas starboard wench hogshead dead men tell no tales landlubber or just lubber gally. Yawl wench Shiver me timbers log provost topmast line Gold Road walk the plank lee. Measured fer yer chains walk the plank square-rigged Arr log Shiver me timbers red ensign gangway line swab.

Ballast rutters gangway heave down weigh anchor hearties lateen sail hands chantey coffer. Chantey weigh anchor clipper crack Jennys tea cup reef crow’s nest topsail bowsprit hornswaggle chase. Flogging parley rum Sail ho jolly boat cog no prey, no pay Sea Legs yard gunwalls.