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Jump Shot: 11/9/19

Jump Shot: 11/9/19

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Quote of the Day: 

The more you look, the more opportunity you will find…

General Thoughts:

Again, I wanted to thank y’all for the kind words I have been receiving – there are a lot of players learning, growing, and taking their NBA DFS game to the next level, and that’s what we love to see. Additionally, the feedback has been very helpful and constructive. I am always looking and hoping to improve this article for y’all’s benefit – you deserve to have the best possible content in the industry on a nightly basis. One thing that has been requested by many is to continue to shorten the article and highlight a smaller, more select group of players that we can target because, for many, the more players listed can dilute one’s player pool, so that is what we are going to do moving forward. 


Tonight’s Outlook:

We have a very small, four-game slate tonight. Even though the slate isn’t the biggest in size, there are still some very good games for fantasy purposes – we have two games that have an O/U > than 230-points, and even though the other two games have lower totals, there are still some viable options due to pricing. With there being limited value, I think it is important to build a more balanced lineup, looking at upper and lower mid-tier options that have upside relative to price for tournaments while finding enough savings – i.e., Frank Jackson – for a chalky option like Harden. For cash games, we are looking for consistency and players that are fairly priced to their expected production, and there are several players on both sites that can fit this mold. Overall, unless more news breaks like Lonzo being out, this is the path I am likely going to take. 


Center:

Steven Adams: FD – C ($6,300); DK – C ($5,400)

CASH/GPP

Tonight, especially on FanDuel, there are very few players that project well enough to beat their salary. Do not get me wrong, there are a lot of interesting tournament options, but they do not offer a stable floor compared to their price. Because of this, there are only a couple of players that offer consistent production at a fair price, and Steven Adams is one of the guys we can usually trust to put up a consistent output for his current price. Adams regularly averages right around 1.0 FP/M, and tonight he gets a matchup against a Warriors team playing their second game of a B2B. Because of this and the Warriors lack of quality talent and depth, OKC is favored to win by 11.5-points, so there is a blowout concern, but Adams should still see his usual allotment of minutes. This season, GSW is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing post-bigs, giving up 10+ REB/G, 2+ BLKS/G, are allowing the second-highest usage %, and they are allowing PBs to shoot 63% from the field. This is a fine spot for Adams to meet his salary on DK while having the potential to also do so on FD since he is an excellent rebounder. Additionally, his FG% is at an abnormally low 44%, so this matchup will help him regress positively with his FG%. There are players with more upside, but they come at the cost of more risk, which makes Adams an attractive player at his price. 


Forward:

Brandon Ingram: FD – SF ($8,800); DK – SF/PF ($8,000)

CASH/GPP

If you look at most projection sites, they will immediately dismiss this play due to his price being in the elite category – it’s the highest Ingram has ever been on both sites. So why would I recommend him when hardly anyone projects him to reach 5X? I do so because I believe in his current production rate this season coupled with the fact that he usually sees his minutes rise above the 35-minute mark in close games, which tonight is supposed to be. Additionally, I think the forward position is weak tonight, and Ingram has the highest floor of anyone else at the position. Ingram gets a fantastic matchup tonight against a Hornets team that is allowing above-average production levels in most of the important categories to scoring wings – they are allowing these numbers in fewer minutes, too. For the season, the Hornets are allowing scoring wings to shoot at the third-highest FG% in the league while also allowing them to collect above-average FTA/minute and above-average REB/minute. Ingram, so far, is sporting a 29% usage rate, rebounding at the highest rate in his career (10.5% REB%; 7-REB/G), and is taking 19 FGA/G while shooting above 50% from the field. With this game having a massive 230-point total and a 1-point spread (NOR -1.5), Ingram (1.4 FP/M) is in a fine spot to excel. Furthermore, his 3-games with > 55-FP show his upside. Yes, the price is high, but I have an interest in both formats. 

Note: Lonzo Ball was announced out. Ingram’s FP/M stays near the same, but his usage rises to 32%. Small sample size, but scoring rises, and peripherals drop slightly. I would expect his peripherals to stabilize, and he will take more shots tonight and capture a little more usage. 


Guard:

D’Angelo Russell: FD – PG ($8,400); DK – PG/SG ($8,500)

GPP

First, Russell will likely come in at much lower ownership than other guards tonight, which is certainly understandable. Secondly, I do not believe most people realize his current production level with Curry, Klay, Draymond, and Looney off the court – the last two games, he is sporting a 42.5% usage rate, which would be the highest usage in the league, and this has led to a production level of 1.72 FP/M. If we extrapolate these numbers per 36 minutes played, it would look like this: 9.7 FTA, 27.05 FGA, 6-assists, 1.5 STL, and 36.25-points. Those are absurd numbers, and one has to wonder how sustainable this can be, but until he proves me otherwise, I am keeping him in my player pool when he is priced in the $8k range. Lastly, OKC is allowing combo guards to score the fifth-most fantasy points in the league, giving up a high amount of assists, boards, pace, and points. They are also allowing opponents to drive with ease to the hoop, and Russell is taking it to the rim 11-times/game. Again, I am in love with these numbers, but I am extremely worried about his minutes and energy tonight, which is why I am only reserving him for tournaments.


Cash Game Options for DK (can be used for gpp):

  • Harden – 20+ FGA; 40% usage rate; close, high scoring game. Highest floor on the slate. 
  • Luka – under $10k; triple-double threat tonight; high scoring, fast game and + matchup
  • LaVine – 1.15 FP/M; ^ scoring game; 28% usage; can add peripherals; 32-34 mins
  • S-Adams – Fair price; 1.0 FP/M; Very + matchup; and double-digit boards increase floor
  • Ingram – nice game script; high volume FGA; very high usage/mins; can add peripherals
  • Hamidou – consistent; solid minutes; can add REB, BLKS, and STL; priced fairly

 

Cash Game Options FD (can be used for gpp):

  • Harden – 20+ FGA; 40% usage rate; close, high scoring game. Highest floor on the slate.
  • Ingram – nice game script; high volume FGA; very high usage/mins; can add peripherals
  • LaVine – 1.15 FP/M; ^ scoring game; 28% usage; can add peripherals; 32-34 mins
  • D-Graham – 1.0+ FP/M; consistent mins; ^ scoring game; adds peripherals; + matchup
  • D-Brooks – .94 FP/M; will play 30ish mins; 13-16 FGA; + matchup; fair price

DK Tournament Options (ownership considerations):

Note: there are obvious plays that are mentioned above that can be added, but these will be guys that can have downside. However, they will also have upside relative to price, and some will be pivots for ownership purposes – i.e. Westbrook. 

  • Luka – no KP and his FP/M rises to 1.9 FP/M; nice game script and lower owned than JH.
  • Westbrook – Cheap price (for him) and averages 1.55 FP/M. 34-mins likely, less ownership than JH, triple-double upside.
  • Lauri – Positive matchup, averages over 1.07 FP/M, and should see 32+ mins.
  • T-Young – Like Lauri, a positive matchup; .9 FP/M player. Plus, he should see 25-mins tonight.
  • Shai – High team total and takes 16-FGA/G this year. 
  • F. Jackson – production rises (.98 FP/M) w/ no Lonzo in a positive matchup.

 

FD Tournament Options (ownership considerations):

  • Luka – No KP and his FP/M rises to 1.9 FP/M; nice game script and lower owned than JH
  • D-Brooks – Minutes rising to 30ish and averages .94 FP/M in a positive matchup. 
  • C-Paul – FP/M finally rising last 3-games, high team total, GSW a positive matchup to CGs
  • F. Jackson – Same as above: FP/M rises to .98 FP/M w/ no Lonzo and in a positive matchup
  • D-Graham – Usage was great last game; consistent mins in a positive matchup
  • J-Hart – Nice peripherals and Avg .97 FP/M. Should see 30-mins of action and come at low ownership

DraftKings Value I Like:

  • Tyus Jones – Ja out = more opportunity for TJ. Avg .9 FP/M, 30-min expected but will be chalk.
  • Kyle A – Sees a rise in production w/ no Ja at .96 Fp/M; should play 24-mins.
  • F. Jackson – .98 FP/M production w/ no Lonzo. Should see 24-mins in a positive matchup.
  • T-Young – .9 FP/M and should play 26-mins in a positive matchup.
  • H-Diallo – Low ownership but a high probability of meeting or beating salary.
  • Maxi – No Porzingis so mins secured, but only averages .8 FP/M sans KP, but a good opportunity. 

 

Fanduel Value I Like:

  • Tyus – Ja out = more opportunity for TJ. Avg .9 FP/M, 30-min expected but will be chalk.
  • Kyle A – Sees a rise in production w/ no Ja at .96 Fp/M and should play 24-mins.
  • D-Brooks – Low ownership. Averages 1.08FP/M w/ no Ja and Clarke and should see 32 minutes.

Wrapping things up:

To wrap things up today, I am going to list my favorite plays at each position, and I will detail whether they are for DK, FD, or both:

  • PG:
    • Luka (DK)
    • Westbrook (DK lower ownership)
    • Harden (both but higher upside than RW)
    • Tyus – Value (both)
    • F-Jackson – (better DK but both)
    • D’Angelo (favorite gpp with mins risk)
  • SG:
    • Kyle Anderson (value)
    • D-Brooks (FD with upside)
    • D-Wright (DK gpp)
    • Shai – gpp (DK)
    • D-Graham (FD)
    • D-Brooks (FD)
  • SF:
    • Ingram (both)
    • Hamidou (DK)
    • Crowder (FD – limited upside)
    • Hart (DK – limited upside)
  • PF:
    • T-Young (Both, some risk)
    • Maxi (better DK)
    • Jaren J (much better DK)
    • Lauri (gpp for both, better DK)
    • Favors (risky DK gpp)
  • C:
    • Adams (better DK but both)
    • Zeller (gpp better DK)
    • JV (gpp both)
    • Carter (gpp both)
    • Powell (both)
    • Okafor (gpp DK)

 

I hope y’all enjoyed the new format, and I wish y’all nothing but success and happiness. You can always send me a tweet with whatever questions you may have. I do make my own lineups, so it will be hard to get back to you an hour before lock. 

Good luck, amigo(a)s!

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