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Euro Rundown: Portugal Masters

Lineup Lock / First Tee Shot: Thursday, October 24th at 3:00 am ET

What to expect from this article:

The length of this article will be short and sweet most weeks. I will provide a quick look at the golf course that is hosting. From there I will provide a few targets and then dive directly into the stats. Let’s get right to it.

 

Course

Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is the host venue this week. It’s been renamed a few times over the years but the course itself has been hosting since 2007 so we have plenty of course history to look at if we choose to.

However, it should be noted that the course received some renovations since last year including a switch to bermuda rough which should help toughen it up a little because it was a bit of a pushover before with bomb-and-gouge being an optimal strategy.

I did hear back from the course crew that the greens still are bent/poa. With the mix of bermuda and bent turf this week and no history to look at which angle will be more predictive, I’m leaving grass stats off the table this week. Instead I will insert performance in Europe and that should cover things since most Euro venues are bentgrass greens. In fact, if you look at the top course horses here then a main trait they all share is there European Continent stats are all better than their baseline. A good angle to target this week (European Continent performance which is in the stats table below.

The other key attribute is the length of the course. It’s a par 71 that plays around 7,200 yards. All three of the par 5s play over 575 yards and four of the par 4s play over 460 yards. Length is a good skill to have this week as you can set up a few extra scoring chances.

Main Targets

Matt Wallace — The Englishman is 2-for-2 here but nothing better than 39th. On paper, he’s the star of the show this week, easily ranking first in all of the 1-Year Baseline stats. With the course getting toughened a bit since last year I like him even more because his skill gap should shine a little easier than if it were still a shootout where the hottest putter wins. The field gets ugly fast this week but I still want to anchor my teams with the most expensive golfer at the top.

Hugo Leon — He remains a favorite value play of mine, despite the back-to-back MCs recently. He rebounded with a top 10 last week in France. The Chilean now has four top 10s on the season but still finds himself just 120th in the Race to Dubai. It’s time to put up or shut up with only the top 117 getting to keep their Euro Tour cards. Leon ranks 4th, yes FOURTH, on tour in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Amazing for someone who ranks outside the top 35 in salary in this weak field. Combine his motivational factors with his ball-striking and I like his chances to pop for a top 25.

Quick Hitters:

-The youngster Min Woo Lee has elite potential but remains inconsistent. Good GPP option.

Matthew Southgate wrecked a lot of lineups with a late WD last week. It was due to illness but I like him as a rebound candidate and his ownership should be really low because people won’t want to go back to the well so soon.

Callum Shinkwin has the driver tools to set up lots of scoring chances here. Very boom or bust but top-10 upside.

-Sam Horsfield is a really good hole-by-hole fantasy scorer and arrives with good form.

George Coetzee snapped back into shape last week and he’s a course horse at this week’s venue.

Favorite Cash Game Options: Matt Wallace, Mikko Korhonen, Chris Paisley, George Coetzee, Jamie Donaldson, Hugo Leon, Kalle Samooja, Tapio Pulkkanen

DraftKings Value Fillers (sub $7k): Min Woo Lee, Ben Evans, Jack Singh Brar, Gavin Moynihan

 

Course Monsters

This is the area where I will focus on course and/or tournament history.

Instead of looking at total strokes gained or strokes gained per round, we will look at something I call a Monster Score. A Monster Round is top 20th percentile round. These are the type of rounds that rocket a golfer onto the first page of the leaderboard. A Monster Dud is when a golfer loses strokes to the field. A Monster Score is a differential between those two.

Here are the top Course Monsters over the last 10 years at Dom Pedro Victoria GC:

+5
George Coetzee (8 Monsters, 3 Duds)
Mikko Korhonen (8 Monsters, 3 Duds)
Eddie Pepperell (8 Monsters, 3 Duds)

+4
Andy Sullivan (10 Monsters, 6 Duds)
Lee Westwood (4 Monsters, 0 Duds)

+3
Padraig Harrington (10 Monsters, 7 Duds)
Lucas Bjerregaard (6 Monsters, 3 Duds)

There isn’t a lot of power on this list. A good week to not rely on the big hitters.

A lot of ugly form from the course horses as well so it will be the classic FORM vs HISTORY debate going head-to-head this week. I’m not ignoring course history but I will lean more on the side of form personally.

Stats

Baseline stats should be at the core of our research each week.

If we’re looking at course-fit angles then we want to use a long-term view for baseline numbers one-year stats are actually where the honey hole is.

1-Year Baseline is the performance (per round) across the PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry, and European Tour, over the last 52 weeks. That number is then adjusted to this week’s field.

1-Year Steady looks at the percentage of rounds where a golfer beats the field by at least one shot (PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry, and European Tour, last 52 weeks, strength of field adjusted).

1-Year Go-Low looks at the percentage of rounds where a golfer gains at least three shots over the field in a single round (PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry, and European Tour, last 52 weeks, strength of field adjusted).

Proj SG is a ranking metric that projects the total number of strokes gained for a golfer this week. This is a combination of the baseline stats with the course-fit stats. Course history also plays a small part as well. Any personal form or stat-based adjustment will also be included in the equation.

The Angles SG column combines the per-round performance of all of the relevant split-stat angles.

Angles Top 20 Rate is the percentage of events where a golfer posted a finish that was top-20 worthy (versus a TOUR-average field) based primarily on similar course/tournament conditions.

Golfer
DK
1-Year Baseline
1-Year Steady Rate
1-Year Go-Low Rate
european continent
Rds
slow greens
Rds
long courses
Rds
Angles SG
Angles Top 20 Rate
Proj SG
Matt Wallace112001.8868%45%1.69902.38162.49682.1150%12.22
Jordan Smith98001.3564%38%1.1802.35141.41841.3943%10.02
Mikko Korhonen96000.9965%33%1.15911.6381.07621.229%8.03
Eddie Pepperell105000.8957%32%1.29791.83160.36521.0531%7.83
Joachim B. Hansen92000.8860%24%1.47460.6670.85321.2136%7.61
Chris Paisley90000.9754%27%1.09660.6670.62500.9220%7.57
Lee Westwood94001.4759%38%1.42681.68191.6521.5546%7.41
Martin Kaymer107001.2861%34%1.26520.11130.99841.0630%7.34
Sam Horsfield93001.0462%26%1.15721.8981.03481.221%7.06
George Coetzee95000.8156%27%1.06701.1990.88501.0428%6.91
Callum Shinkwin84000.9653%31%0.56702.32101.14530.9725%6.79
Jeff Winther78000.8960%32%0.65107-0.7820.83440.7519%6.38
Adria Arnaus103001.0249%35%1.42300.15110.21220.831%5.91
Matthew Southgate86000.3756%21%0.9792.01200.01500.7820%5.6
Gavin Moynihan70000.1753%29%041-0.230-0.2124-0.0116%5.56
Tom Lewis100001.1159%32%0.76812.71140.47480.8925%5.25
Shubhankar Sharma82000.0149%25%0.21261.38170.51440.6119%5.1
Andy Sullivan91000.6956%32%1.5682-0.77131.09701.2226%5.05
Jamie Donaldson85000.5949%24%0.5492-0.2150.19330.4715%4.95
Ross Fisher87000.6755%27%0.35501.2230.9740.7920%4.33
Kalle Samooja76000.652%23%0.8360.870.74260.8120%4.21
Alexander Levy81000.5553%22%0.85660.65190.61700.7521%4.05
Hugo Leon74000.6552%24%0.8738-1.0750.5160.6529%4.05
Lucas Bjerregaard101000.656%29%1.46791.64120.38711.0534%4.04
Ryan Fox88000.4854%24%0.97662.05261.05701.224%3.76
Min Woo Lee70000.5443%21%0.2130.8430.59100.462%3.74
Rikard Karlberg80000.6666%31%0.98490.0240.15200.7520%3.59
Nino Bertasio76000.4449%25%0.721120.78110.02590.5419%3.42
Alexander Bjork83000.9257%31%1.285-0.8890.82780.9722%3.38
Tapio Pulkkanen72000.5650%27%0.16721.6480.17480.3111%3.36
Dean Burmester79000.2749%16%0.61691.66120.56620.7217%3.05
David Horsey77000.6155%18%0.641011.53100.73620.7717%2.88
Eduardo De La Riva70000.3250%25%0.563-0.230-1.78160.17%2.86
John Catlin7000-0.1343%13%0.25261.148-0.38140.235%2.75
Steven Brown7000-0.0742%18%0.53690.1950.18380.4516%2.62
Ashley Chesters78000.552%24%0.89119-1.6370.71700.7925%2.57
Padraig Harrington77000.5549%22%1.16471.18200.03470.7220%2.25
Sihwan Kim71000.5154%25%0.55340.8431.83221.125%2.24
Oliver Wilson70000.7163%32%-0.34491.0180.92240.212%2.21
Guido Migliozzi79000.4655%29%0.68300.870.8200.779%1.94
Thomas Aiken71000.6949%26%0.6158-0.4150.73460.6711%1.51
Pablo Larrazabal75000.7657%27%1.05640.0471.12691.0923%1.5
Stephen Gallacher7300-0.1440%17%0.36880.9470.4600.4618%1.34
Jeunghun Wang7600-0.1643%15%0.39702.97100.55790.6924%1.33
Bradley Dredge73000.545%24%0.61108-0.2150.64520.6516%1.29
Nacho Elvira75000.3345%20%0.51980.6670.95740.7624%1.19
Adrian Otaegui72000.5453%22%0.44880.1390.99820.7319%1
Justin Walters71000.0949%16%0.271052.2370.51510.4814%0.91
Joakim Lagergren89000.1754%21%0.59842.0280.31580.6121%0.89
Dimitrios Papadatos66000.1755%20%0.3530-2.1850.66180.2511%0.85
Niklas Lemke72000.5857%21%0.3440-0.2300.41140.4215%0.81
Ben Evans68000.0538%20%0.2173-0.230-0.71270.029%0.77
Lee Slattery74000.3948%20%0.81021.0860.6700.7912%0.63
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano69000.0343%19%0.28550.88240340.3312%0.36
Kristoffer Reitan69000.0550%24%0.2528-0.435-0.6514-0.0616%0.27
Jack Singh Brar67000.4747%15%0.51360.395-0.14220.328%0.1
Jens Dantorp6600-0.2642%16%0.0489-1.697-0.0452-0.025%0
Matthieu Pavon6900-0.0748%24%0.34841.4120.28640.4415%-0.03
Nicolai Hojgaard68000.1241%24%0.2221-0.895-0.75-0.097%-0.08
Bernd Ritthammer6700-0.1743%16%0.0461-0.2300.24220.1614%-0.25
Max Schmitt65000.1747%22%-0.1838-0.230-0.0816-0.098%-0.27
Haydn Porteous71000.5352%18%0.8106-0.929-0.29600.3911%-0.33
Renato Paratore75000.4151%22%0.25881.237-0.33600.1214%-0.43
Maximilian Kieffer69000.3646%24%0.5794-0.2820.64620.6517%-0.48
Clement Sordet66000.1344%23%-0.7955-0.2300.8438-0.0514%-0.54
Louis De Jager65000.3444%21%-0.0523-0.1630.61120.1910%-0.63
Alejandro Canizares68000.3555%20%0.3185-0.2300.07350.36%-0.79
Jake McLeod6600-0.1446%27%-0.122-0.9850.74120.070%-0.81
Darren Fichardt68000.4448%25%0.1458-2.3970.34470.129%-0.83
Grant Forrest67000.2347%16%-0.2434-0.5880.47320.078%-0.97
Matthew Nixon64000.0744%15%0.2486-0.2300.51320.387%-1
Ricardo Gouveia7300-0.3935%18%-0.08961.0860.31580.169%-1.01
Espen Kofstad6400-0.2354%19%0.4526-0.230-1.4312-0.085%-1.23
Alvaro Quiros7100-0.0546%19%0.58680.256-0.2500.3112%-1.31
Nick Cullen6400-0.1738%15%-0.2662-0.2300.9113010%-1.32
Soren Kjeldsen74000.0247%24%0.81840.97200.48610.7416%-1.4
Romain Wattel6900-0.3540%21%0.1480-0.215-0.3452011%-1.41
Robert Rock73000.3746%22%0.3475-0.6470.53560.4215%-1.5
Adrien Saddier6900-0.1744%13%-0.3880-0.230-0.2438-0.276%-1.7
Oliver Fisher7100-0.1245%16%0.081061.3980.27630.2610%-1.9
Brandon Stone7200-0.1544%23%-0.21430.0322-0.4760-0.273%-2.02
Anton Karlsson6400-0.0647%14%-0.9555-0.2300.2325-0.517%-2.19
Hideto Tanihara6700-0.2641%16%0.559-0.9417-0.3969-0.0516%-2.19
Lorenzo Gagli68000.0943%10%0.0666-3.282-0.1736-0.037%-2.28
Paul Dunne6700-0.1549%16%0.27700.78210.49700.4715%-2.44
Robert Karlsson66000.0544%21%-0.71651.426-0.3942-0.4310%-2.58
Stuart Manley6200-0.3440%15%-0.47680.524-0.4528-0.374%-2.62
Liam Johnston6200-0.4840%16%-0.4636-0.615-1.122-0.6511%-2.64
Deyen Lawson6400-0.2934%14%-0.3428-0.230-0.510-0.320%-2.71
Jacques Kruyswijk6500-0.6834%12%-0.12640.3770.12360.0418%-2.85
Tomas Gouveia6100-0.520%0%-5.874-0.230-0.550-5.820%-2.92
Trevor Immelman6500-0.4332%11%-0.2326-0.4112-0.5733-0.390%-3.11
Daniel Rodrigues6100-0.520%0%-0.510-0.230-0.550-0.460%-3.14
Pedro Cruz Silva6000-0.520%0%-0.510-0.230-0.550-0.460%-3.14
Max Orrin6300-0.5633%13%-0.2340-0.230-0.316-0.193%-3.25
Paul Lawrie6700-2.213%0%0.3214-0.284-1.6418-0.693%-3.26
David Drysdale6800-0.0347%20%-0.0189-0.299-0.8455-0.2810%-3.7
Kristian Krogh Johannessen6200-135%10%0.0237-0.230-0.9619-0.250%-3.8
Thomas Bjorn6300-0.736%12%-0.6859-2.815-0.5154-0.647%-3.82
David Law6000-0.5537%14%-0.8330-0.815-0.8316-0.796%-3.83
Joel Girrbach6100-0.6333%7%-0.5626-0.230-0.3814-0.430%-3.85
Per Langfors6200-0.8935%13%-0.6530-0.230-0.9614-0.680%-3.88
Daniel Gavins6500-0.833%10%-0.2228-0.230-0.510-0.230%-3.94
Yusaku Miyazato6300-0.4234%12%-0.3448-0.4915-1.1126-0.575%-4
Raphael Jacquelin6300-0.4838%13%-0.6284-0.2560.2656-0.215%-4.24
Tom Murray6200-0.7632%14%-1.1130-0.230-1.4412-1.140%-4.32
Sam Brazel6400-0.5534%10%-1.160-2.282-0.7142-0.90%-4.39
Ivan Cantero Gutierrez6200-1.2529%16%-123-0.230-1.1911-10%-4.47
Filippo Bergamaschi6100-1.1835%11%-1.3630-6.282-1.3818-1.518%-4.63
Tomas Santos Silva6000-0.520%0%-0.874-0.230-0.550-0.820%-4.64
Pedro Figueiredo6500-0.5738%11%-0.2435-1.782-0.8322-0.460%-4.69
Chris Wood7200-1.0731%7%0.88530.0219-1.5957-0.3122%-4.73
Steve Webster6100-0.520%0%0.1154-0.2300.38160.249%-4.75
Michael Campbell6100-2.2918%9%-2.718-2.215-3.414-2.753%-4.79
Marc Warren6600-1.1135%13%-0.9685-0.230-0.5857-0.7411%-4.89
Michael Hoey6300-0.5242%16%-1.5927-0.230-0.5415-1.153%-5.02
Tomas Guimaraes Bessa6000-0.520%0%-4.612-0.230-0.550-4.560%-5.85
Hyo-Won Park6000-1.2229%19%-2.7220-0.230-1.8416-2.260%-5.86
Miguel Gaspar6000-0.520%0%-2.494-0.230-0.550-2.440%-6.07
Richard McEvoy6300-0.7932%11%0.1180-0.264-0.16370.0710%-6.23
Scott Gregory6200-1.8335%3%-0.7815-7.762-1.4316-1.460%-6.53
David Borda6000-1.7226%11%-3.1318-0.230-3.198-3.090%-7.94
Joao Carlota6000-0.520%0%-3.096-0.230-0.550-3.040%-8.1
Tiago Cruz6000-0.520%0%-2.696-0.230-0.550-2.640%-8.79
David Howell6100-1.1824%2%-0.3972-3.514-0.8136-0.580%-8.79
Matteo Manassero6100-2.0416%6%-1.0972-2.282-0.9648-15%-9.7