Jeff Collins (known as JeffElJefe across the industry, more about him here) leads our MLB content and with good reason. Few can even compete with his DFS resume having won over $2M in just the last year, which was highlighted by becoming the champion of the 2018 DraftKings FBWC at the end of baseball season for $500k. He was also given an award for his writing abilities by the Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association and boasts most about the number of subscribers he’s helped accomplish their goal of qualifying for a live final.
He has an unrivaled ability to make complicated things accessible to the everyday player, and he loves to teach. He is known for his transparency, shows more “behind the curtain” strategies than anyone else out there, and opens up his playbook for NumberBall subs.
Jeff goes extremely deep into pitching analysis and can tell you how many inches anyone’s slider breaks, whether a guy only throws his changeup against lefties, that a guy’s K% should regress based on how many called strikes he’s getting, that a swing-happy team makes the pitcher who can’t throw strikes a good play, that a pitcher is going to have more upside than people think because of the specific lineup released having much more favorable splits than the team’s season averages, that a certain hitter would have had five more HRs if he played all of his games in the ballpark he’s at today — I think you get the point. Nerdy stuff that nobody else even thinks to look at or knows where to find the answers. Better than just telling you the answers, he walks you through where to find them and how to quantify them.
He’s friends with many of the DFS pros that also play the highest stakes every day — guys that get his advice before finalizing their lineups, many of which are using his projections.
Jeff also reached out to a fella named James McCool wanting to know more about a stat he developed called xHR/9. This was the perfect opportunity to give the NumberBall subscribers access to something that nobody else had, taught by the creator of the stat himself. After releasing James’ article about xHR/9 and it becoming a hit, it was an easy decision (and insisted upon by subscribers) to officially add him to the team. Jeff and James are able to bounce ideas off of each other in an effort to cut out new edges and then relay that to subscribers through the content. An effort is made to work together and come to similar conclusions so that someone reading the content isn’t pulled a bunch of different directions not knowing where to land themselves.
What you’ll get in our MLB package:
Daily Rundown Article
Slate-driven insights that dive into the specifics of that day’s matchups, but regularly with an eye towards teaching bigger concepts. Often mentioned are velocity and pitch movement changes and how that would impact the pitcher (or batters against him). This is basically the notepad Jeff references as he is building his own lineups, but not only that… he comes back when he has spare time and makes updates until lock with trends he’s seeing in his own lineups (like “I’ve got way more of X stack than I thought I’d have because of the pricing and how it fits with my other stacks”) or with new information he’s uncovered. There are rankings by each position and then value plays listed for both FanDuel and DraftKings. For stacks, he ranks the teams expected to score the most runs in order of interest, then lists some other stacks he likes that may not be as popular. Whenever he’s going to make a big stand, he’s sure to let everyone know. If he’s fading someone because of ownership, that’s in the article too. In general the goal is to somehow get all of that information into something that is digestible within 5-10 minutes, but there are occasions when he’ll write up commentary on every pitcher from the slate, the pitch changes they’ve made, their strengths and weaknesses, what type of contests he’d use them in or his interest level in stacking against them in an effort to teach people what to look for on their own. A lot of the time there are extras thrown in like data tables with pitcher splits and matchup stats. Jeff writes this article an average of five or more times per week himself covering every main slate and even most of the bigger (4+ games) early slates. Through the first 2+ months of the season, he provided content on the site every single day. Now when he takes the occasional day off, McCool fills in with much success. James has taken subscribers deep into both how to create and use his spreadsheets via screencasts on days that he has written the Rundown. He complements Jeff’s approach very well and NumberBall subscribers have developed extremely well-rounded skillsets because of it.
There are articles and/or podcasts weekly that cover concepts like game selection, predictive stats, and lineup reviews/analysis, plus simple AMAs to answer subscriber questions. We’ve done a couple screencasts on how to build your own spreadsheets, which are very useful if you ever want to get into creating your own projections. Jeff shows you some basic formulas that can automate the updating of stats so that you don’t have to copy/paste data every day, and in Part Two McCool gets into more advanced formulas that aren’t as well-known but are extremely valuable for pulling stats. Check Part One out here.
A combination of stats we’ve curated and stats we’ve created. The best, easiest to understand, and most predictive stats available in an easy-to-understand layout.
Provided for FanDuel and DraftKings in partnership with our friends at UF Collective – these are the ownership projections that the pros use. They are provided for all main slates with five games or more.